Lies vs. Reality: Details
LIE #1: FLOODING THE SUPPLY OF MARKET RATE AND LUXURY HOUSING PUSHES COSTS DOWN FOR EVERYONE. When it comes to housing, over the last decade California has practiced a warped version of trickle down economics. Some 400 new laws have all but destroyed local governments’ ability to control development and zoning. The political establishment and their special interest benefactors claim that unleashing hundreds of thousands, and eventually millions, of new market rate and luxury multifamily housing units will, somehow, magically, push down living costs for everyone. Since they can’t call it trickle down economics – that would be political suicide – they’ve come up with another euphemism. They call it “filtering.”
REALITY: Housing is not fungible. Fungible refers to an item that can be easily replaced with another, similar item. The classic example is Coke and Pepsi. Housing is not interchangeable because different houses, townhouses, condos, apartments, co-ops, mobile homes, and shared living spaces have different features, including location, size, number of rooms, age, build quality, features, fixtures, outdoor space, views, noise levels, overall physical condition, and, of course, price. People searching for affordable housing aren’t affected by new supply in the luxury housing market, and vice versa. A young couple looking to buy their starter home are in a different market from tenants in rent-controlled apartments and older homeowners living in single family homes that are paid off. A middle aged working couple with two children looking for an affordable single family house in West Los Angeles is not competing with a tech billionaire looking for a second home just a couple miles away in Pacific Palisades. And so on.
That’s why flooding the supply of a single type of housing – higher end multifamily units in dense urban cores – does nothing to affect costs of any other type of housing, least of all desperately needed truly affordable housing for Californians farther down the economic ladder. It’s like arguing that building a million new Ferraris will push down the price of Hondas and Chevys.
There are more problems with the trickle down theory. The construction of a new luxury apartment or condo building in a middle or lower class community pushes real estate prices in the surrounding neighborhood up, not down. That’s because other developers see an opportunity to cash in with their own buildings. It creates a vicious cycle that enriches the already rich, at everyone else’s expense.
ONV supports policies that incentivize localities to build housing that fits their particular needs. Local officials know their communities far better than distant state bureaucrats, and state leaders should work with them, not on them, to spur housing accessible to Californians at all income levels.
LIE #2: CALIFORNIA HAS A SHORTFALL OF BETWEEN 2.5 AND 3.5 MILLION HOMES. These numbers originated in a simplistic 2016 “study” from consulting behemoth McKinsey & Company, which isn’t exactly known for its deep commitment to hard working Americans. Using deeply flawed math and unjustified assumptions, the consultants concluded California needed to build a jaw-dropping 3.5 million new units of housing between 2016 and 2025. Despite its many deep flaws, the study triggered Sacramento’s blitzkrieg assault on local democracy.
REALITY: McKinsey’s wildly inflated numbers have been thoroughly debunked. Likewise, in a report released in March 2022, the California State Auditor concluded that new housing mandates, known as the Regional Housing Needs Allocation (“RHNA”) are equally flawed. The Auditor “identified multiple areas in which HCD must improve its process.” Despite this report – from a state agency – the Legislature and Governor are so beholden to their taskmasters in big real estate, big tech, and big finance, they continue to plow ahead using discredited numbers.
In reality, California needs to increase the supply of affordable housing, where we have a shortfall of around 1 million units. In fact, most of those units already exist. We don’t need to “build, baby, build,” we need smart policies that counteract the market-warping impacts of large corporate landlords, owned-but-not-occupied units, and dirty money.
Consider: According to the U.S. Census Bureau the average persons per household (“PPH”) in California is 2.89. That means building 3.5 million new homes would create enough housing for 10.1 million people, and building 2.5 million would be enough for 7.2 million. Where are all those people going to come from? In the last three years California has experienced a net loss in population for the first time since we joined the Union. We need smart housing policies, not massive corporate profits.
LIE #3: LOCAL GOVERNMENTS HINDER BADLY NEEDED NEW HOUSING CONSTRUCTION. Among California’s political establishment it has become conventional wisdom that city councils, boards of supervisors, and local planning commissions are the biggest hindrances to new housing construction. The theory is that they are determined to prevent new people, especially lower income people, from moving in.
REALITY: Local electeds care most about the future of the communities they represent, with economic – and therefore population – growth at the core of that concern. No one gets elected to their city council by promising to stymie economic growth and new jobs. It’s a smear the YIMBYs and the establishment use to attack local authority and democracy. It’s demonstrably false – just ask your own city councilmember or supervisor.
LIE #4: SUBURBS AND SINGLE FAMILY NEIGHBORHOODS ARE EXCLUSIONARY AND RACIST. As part of their assault on local authority over housing, the YIMBYs and much of the political establishment point to shameful chapters in California, and U.S. history, including legal prohibitions on non-white people from purchasing homes in desirable neighborhoods (also known as “redlining”), racial restrictions on individual property deeds, and other measures that prevented non-whites from the dream of homeownership.
They argue that the legacies of these historical facts are alive and well in the 21st century, and that they’re still preventing tens of millions of non-whites from good quality housing. They point to gaps in homeownership between whites and non-whites, particularly blacks and Latinos, as proof.
REALITY: These days, a whopping 94% of Americans agree that a single family home is central to the American Dream. In fact, the vast majority of Americans of all races and ethnicities live in suburbs, exurbs, rural areas, or other low density areas. This includes 76.4% of blacks, 80.5% of Asians, 83.3% of Latinos, and 90% of whites. Many of those who live in dense urban cores and cities either do so by choice or are saving to buy that home in the suburbs. We need to do as much as possible to make that dream attainable to all Americans – not destroy the very neighborhoods where nearly everyone wants to live.
It’s true that there are significant gaps between white homeownership and, specifically, black and Latino. But this hard reality isn’t primarily a result of racist policies that were outlawed 50 or 75 years ago. The more salient factors are California’s atrocious record on educating generations of black and Latino youth and failing to prepare them for jobs and careers in the modern economy, the state’s woeful track record of middle class job creation over the last 25 years, and our failure to adapt to the needs of our foreign-born population, which today accounts for nearly 30% of the population.
By continually picking historical wounds, the political establishment obscures these realities – which are, of course, their responsibility. It’s easier to blame the past than to look in the mirror and take responsibility for the present.
LIE #5: “YIMBYs” CARE ABOUT AFFORDABLE HOUSING, LIVABLE COMMUNITIES, AND HARDWORKING CALIFORNIANS. On their website, the YIMBYs piously proclaim that their mission is “to make California an affordable place to live, work, and raise a family.” Their website and social media are filled with references to “equity,” “inclusion,” and “empowerment.” They’d have you believe they’re a scrappy group of grassroots activists fighting the powers that be on behalf of average folks and, especially, the marginalized.
REALITY: We have to hand it to the corporate-backed YIMBYs: They got away with it for a long time. It’s been one of the most successful political snow-jobs in California history. With the full backing of the state’s corporate, tech, and political class they’ve smeared anyone who so much as raises a question about their intentions.
However, now that they’re embedded in California’s political establishment, they’ve started dropping the act. Most tellingly, in several cities nationwide they’ve launched an AI assisted platform called YIMBY+ to assist real estate speculators. For example, the New York YIMBY website declares, “With YIMBY+, you can navigate the real estate landscape in the New York metro area like never before. YIMBY+ combines the rich dataset of New York YIMBY with Rebar Radar’s advanced digital twin technology stack, offering an immersive 3D experience and a wealth of real-time information at your fingertips. Experience a unique set of comprehensive data layers exclusive to YIMBY’s extensive knowledge base. YIMBY+ provides constantly updating, highly detailed information on everything from construction updates to permit statuses, and much more.” Well, then. So much for those affordable communities.
The YIMBY+ “Enterprise” package starts at $2,000 a year. Any questions? Anyone still believe the YIMBYs give a fraction of a flip about housing affordability and struggling working Americans? No — the YIMBYs are about the almighty dollar. They are rapacious capitalists masquerading as crusading reformers. They’re Daniel Plainview disguised as Jefferson Smith.
Read more about the lies behind the YIMBY movement:
- Inside Game: California YIMBY, Scott Wiener, and Big Tech’s Troubling Housing Push here
- The Case Against YIMBYism here
- YIMBYs Exposed: The Techies Hawking Free Market “Solutions” to the Nation’s Housing Crisis here
- The Only Thing Worse Than A NIMBY Is A YIMBY here
- Yimbys Exposed here
- Vancouver housing market destroys YIMBYs, here
- The Yimbys are winning the media narrative, and that’s bad for all of us here
- YIMBYs: The Darlings of the Real Estate Industry here.
Find out more in our FAQs and Why a Ballot Initiative page.